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| A Second Look at Gambling, by William B. Keleher
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The Albuquerque Economic Forum, in January
1996, adopted a resolution recommending that the New Mexico State
Legislature adopt no changes in the laws of New Mexico which would expand
in any way the present laws relating to legalized gambling. The January
1996 action of the Economic Forum was taken after study by the Government
Affairs Committee of the Economic Forum and presentation of the Committee
findings to the full Forum.
The 1996 New Mexico Legislature took no
action to modify the then-existing laws of New Mexico prohibiting most,
but not all, forms of gambling in New Mexico. However, and notwithstanding
the November 1995 New Mexico Supreme Court decision that electronic slot
machines and other casino forms of gambling were illegal, various Indian
Tribes continued to operate casinos contending that, under the theories
advanced, the Indian casinos were legal. To date, the Indian position has
not been sustained by the federal courts as three separate federal
district court judges have held that Indian casinos in New Mexico are
illegal. However, all Indian casinos continue to operate, as two of the
three federal district court decisions have been stayed and the U.S.
Attorney, by agreement with the Mescalero Apache Tribe, consented to the
reopening of the Mescalero Apache casino. The three federal district court
decisions were appealed to the United States Circuit Court for the Tenth
Circuit, Denver, Colorado, and oral argument was heard November 20, 1996,
in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
If the Tenth Circuit sustains the Federal
trial court decisions and follows the decision of the New Mexico Supreme
Court, it is anticipated that the New Mexico Legislature will, during the
1997 session (or perhaps at an earlier special session), consider whether
or not the laws of New Mexico should be changed to authorize and permit
gambling. Various options to legalize gambling may be considered, such as:
- Casinos within Indian Lands.
- Casinos within Indian lands and at
resort areas.
- Casinos within Indian lands, resort
areas, and Race Tracks.
- Casinos, as outlined in 3 above, plus
electronic slots at fraternal lodges and other social clubs.
In anticipation of proposed legislative
action, a subcommittee of the Economic Forum was established to review the
Economic Forum=s January 1996 Resolution and determine whether or not the
Economic Forum should change, affirm or reverse its position. This report
has been prepared for the use of Economic Forum members in determining
whether or not the position of the Economic Forum should be confirmed,
modified, or rescinded. PART II: EXPERIENCES IN OTHER STATES
WITH GAMBLING
A great deal has been written regarding the
economic effect of gambling. New Mexico's experience with casino gambling
is limited and we therefore turned to studies prepared by others, based on
the experiences in other states, which have had a longer period to
experience the effects of legal gambling.
What follows in Part II of this paper is a
review of studies and published reports of the economic and social impacts
of gambling.
A. An Illinois Study
- In an unpublished paper by E. L. Grinols
and J. D. Omorov, September 1996, Development or Dreamfield
Illusions?: Assessing Casino Gambling's Costs and Benefits the authors
quote Adam Smith, who wrote in the late 1770=s, with respect to
lotteries, as follow:
- There is not, however, a more certain
proposition in mathematics, that the more tickets you adventure upon,
the more likely you are to be a loser. Adventure upon all the tickets
in the lottery, and you lose for certain; and the greater the number
of your tickets, the nearer your approach to that certainty. (p. 2)
- The Grinols and Omorov paper is based
primarily on data from Illinois, which legalized riverboat casinos as
part of an economic effort to overcome the 1990-91 recession. The
paper addresses the premise of promoters who advanced gambling as a
regional development tool, as well as the monetary aspects of
gambling, the links between both problem gamblers and pathological
gamblers, and the effect of gambling on employment. The abstract of
the Grinols and Omorov study is quoted in full, as follows:
- Casino gambling entails policy questions
relating to the size of harmful externalities it causes and to the
size of the associated consumer, producer and tax benefits gained from
placing casinos in new geographical areas. This paper evaluates the
social costs of expanded casino gambling and finds that they are
between $112-$338 annually per adult. The paper constructs and
analyzes a measure of consumer benefits from closer proximity to
casinos. Producer, consumer, and tax benefits are no greater than $56.
Based on available data, therefore, casino gambling fails a
cost-benefit test. The evidence suggests that casinos of the type that
have opened in many states do not act as tourist attractions in most
areas and therefore are not economic development tools in those cases.
Grinols and Omorov conclude:
- Somewhere between one-third and one-half
of the population never, or almost never, gambles." (p. 2)
- The remaining less than 10 percent of
the population can be characterized as consisting of heavy betters,
problem gamblers (2 to 3 percent of the overall population) and
pathological gamblers (1 to 2.5 percent of the overall population).
(p. 3)
- A Pathological or addicted= gamblers
impose costs on the rest of society in the form of crime, related
apprehension, adjudication, and incarceration costs, and social
service costs for themselves and their families. (p. 3)
- Although the percentage of pathological
gamblers in the population is small, it is typically a tiny portion of
the population that creates the enormous social costs that must be
borne by the rest. The percentage of pathological gamblers, for
example, should be compared to the percentage of the population who
engage in robbery, drive drunk, or abuse illegal drugs. (p. 3)
- Grinols and Omorov report that Nevada, a
state which legalized gambling years ago (i)has the highest suicide
rate in the Nation, more than double the national average, (ii) among
the highest divorce rate and rate of child death by abuse in recent
years, (iii) among the highest rate of accidents per vehicle mile
driven and (iv) is also notable in other areas including school
dropout rates and crime. (p. 3) Grinols and Omorov state:
- Focusing just on social costs that can
be measured - primarily apprehension, adjudication, incarceration,
direct regulatory costs, and lost productivity costs - leads to annual
cost per pathological gambler between $15,000 and $33,000 in current
dollars. Combining this information with prevalent studies implies
that the social costs are between $210 and $770 per adult each year
spread over the adult population. (p. 4)
- The costs quoted above are reduced by
Grinols and Omorov because Americans have had access to casinos in
Nevada and Atlantic City for many years. Therefore the difference,
i.e., the increased social costs, comparing the figures for the year
studied to a pre-1990 situation, due to the introduction of gambling
in a state like Iowa or Illinois would be smaller. They estimate the
increased social costs to be between $112 and $338 per adult. (p. 4)
Grinols and Omorov found:
- . . . the primary benefit of casino
gambling to new regions is improved access to gambling on the same
terms as is currently available in existing gambling outlets. Thus,
the relevant direct benefit for those who can unharmfully gamble comes
from the greater convenience of geographically closer casinos. (p.6)
- To arrive at the benefits from new
casinos the authors analyzed Illinois data, using the pre-1990
situation (when casino gambling was available only in Atlantic City
and in Nevada), the population within 35 miles of a casino, the
population within 150 to 300 miles of a casino, and the population
more than 300 miles from a casino. Gambling expenditures per visit to
a casino and the annual number of casino visits per gambler were used
to determine the value of increased profits and increased taxes. The
taxes lost to other sectors were subtracted. Their conclusion:
- Taken together, direct net benefits from
expanded gambling would be no greater than $43.08 per adult and
increased producer surplus and taxes would be no greater than $12.50,
for a total of $55.58. Social costs from expanded gambling would be
$112 to $338 per adult. Thus costs outweigh benefits. It therefore
appears that gambling is among the class of activities that, while
privately profitable to casino owners are socially harmful. (pp. 8, 9)
The above is for the nation as a whole and
does not take into account regional employment effects. (p.9)
- To assess regional employment effects
Grinols and Omorov cite employment figures for pre-riverboat and
post-riverboat gambling and conclude that, with the possible exception
of Alton, Illinois (a riverboat town near Chicago) there is no
discernible pattern to the unemployment data after a casino opens
compared to before. (p. 11) Grinols and Omorov state:
- Several possibilities can explain the
fact that little or no impact on unemployment can be seen. One is that
most hiring did not take place from the pool of local unemployed: If
jobs were taken by people from outside the area, or by individuals who
left other jobs for casino employment, we would not observe a
reduction in the number of unemployed. Another explanation might be
that casinos attracted large sums of money to the communities
involved, but also removed large sums of money so that local net
expenditure increase was negligible. A combination of these
explanations also might be responsible. (p. 11)
- Grinols and Omorov, find a direct link
between casinos and both problem and pathological gamblers, stating:
- Among Minnesota gamblers seeking help
for gambling problems, for example, sixty-six percent attributed their
problems to casinos compared to only 5 percent who attributed their
gambling problems to the lottery. (p. 4)
Studies cited by Grinols and Omorov report
". . . one percent of gamblers waged 50 percent of all the money, and
10 percent of betters were wagering 80 percent . . ." of all money
spent on lottery tickets. (p. 5) These figures imply ". . . that 52
percent of casino revenues come from the 4.11 percent of the population
who are pathological and problem gamblers. (p. 5) The use of casino
revenues to treat problem gamblers and pathological gamblers would, of
course, reduce casino revenues unless the casinos could attract
replacement gamblers. If the average adult lost $200 per year, then it is
estimated that 37.5 percent of revenue of casinos in the area came from
problem gamblers and pathological gamblers. (p. 5)
In summary, Grinols and Omorov conclude
that gambling fails a simple cost-benefit test.
B. A Florida Study
- The conclusion of Grinols and Omorov as
to the economic effects of casinos who rely, for the most part, on a
local customer base, is substantially similar to a Florida study,
prepared by the Executive Officer of the Governor, State of Florida,
entitled "Casinos in Florida and Analysis of the Social and
Economic Impacts. The Executive Summary of the Florida study reads as
follows:
- Casino industry officials promote the
legalization of casino gambling as an incredible economic development
tool, producing substantial revenues for government and growth in
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Would Casinos Affect New England's Economy? Fifteen
papers were presented at the symposium. The results were published in a
Special Report, dated October 2, 1995. Many of the participants cited the
success of the Foxwoods Casino, owned by the Pequot Tribe, Connecticut,
which exploded in instant success.
The Pequot Tribe, has clearly experienced
an economic bonanza for legal gambling on Pequot Tribal lands has been an
overwhelming success for the Pequot Tribe (Symposium, Rose, p. 31).
- The economic and social cost of the
Foxwoods, as well as other casinos in the adjoining states, was
characterized by Grinols, and for the most part has been summarized
above as part of the Grinols and Omorov paper, subparagraph A above.
Grinols did observe at the Symposium as follows:
- A sufficiently small region can take
money from its neighboring regions through gambling, as Las Vegas does
from California, but it is a logical impossibility for every region or
city to gain at the expense of its neighbors (Symposium, Grinols, p.
3).
Grinols noted that the casinos in Minnesota
cater to patrons who are more than 93 percent from Minnesota and 92
percent of the gamblers in Peoria are from within Illinois (Symposium,
Grinols, pp. 7, 10).
But, of more importance, was the focus of
Grinols on Influence buying, engaged in, he says, by the gambling industry
and those who want to be casino owners. He cited a Chicago Tribune report
of an offer of $20 million to two government insiders if they could obtain
a state casino license (Symposium, Grinols, p. 5, 6).
Two of the speakers at the Symposium were
attorney generals, one from Massachusetts and the other from Rhode Island.
Both cited increased crime experienced at Atlantic City and in the
Foxwoods area. The Massachusetts attorney general stated that the Ledyard,
Connecticut crime rate had doubled each year that Foxwoods has been open,
citing forgery, bad checks, credit card fraud, vandalism, drunken driving
and the like (Symposium, Harshberger, p. 121). He also stated that in
nearly every state that has casino gambling, instances of public
corruption has occurred (Symposium, Harshberger, p. 123).
- The Rhode Island attorney general also
cited increased crime since the opening of the Foxwoods Casino, and
concluded his remarks as follows:
- Finally, we keep hearing about how
successful Foxwoods Casino is, making millions of dollars a day. That
may be true, but we must think seriously about the consequences of
this success, the impact it has had on the communities and families of
Connecticut, Rhode Island and elsewhere. The question for casino
owners and those who will decide whether to allow a casino in the
community is, just how are we going to measure success? What is its
definition in these times? At what cost to society will this so-called
success be achieved? (Symposium, Pine, p. 129).
- Howard J. Shaffer, Associate Director,
Division on Addictions, Harvard Medical School, made a presentation at
the Symposium based on a paper he co-authored, entitled The
Psychosocial Consequences of Gambling. The paper, reproduced in the
report of the Symposium at page 130, stated that there is a paucity of
scientific research focusing on the psychosocial consequences of
gambling, particularly among youth. (Symposium, p. 130) However, with
the information available, Shaffer reports:
- 77.9 to 83 percent of youth have no
problem.
- 9.9 to 14.2 percent of youth have some
symptoms - but do not meet the test of pathological gamblers - and are
at risk.
- Between 4.4% and 7.4% of youth can be
classified as compulsive or pathological gamblers; and
- About 1.7% of youth are in treatment for
compulsive or pathological gambling. (pp. 132, 133)
The problems with youth who gamble result
in problems at home, work and school. Shaffer foresees emerging addiction
of youth as gamblers and fears America is becoming dependent on gambling -
generated revenues. (Symposium, p. 136) III. INDIAN VIEW
Without any doubt, the casinos operated
either by or for Indian Tribes in New Mexico are successful. Reports of
the economic benefits to the Tribes, as reported in newspaper articles and
paid commercials, attest to the success of the Indian casinos. Studies
have been made available which support the Indian position.
A. The January 1996 Study Prepared For Indian Tribes
- In a study entitled "The Benefits
and Costs of Indian Gaming in New Mexico" prepared for The New
Mexico Indian Gaming Association by the Center for Applied Research,
Denver, Colorado, dated January 22, 1996 the modeling technique known
as "input-output analysis" was used to assess the impacts of
Indian gaming. In its preface, the report stated as follows:
- The socioeconomic and fiscal costs of
Indian gaming also need to be recognized so that they can be weighed
against the benefits that may accrue to the Indian Tribes and general
public. (p. i)
The study reports the total spent on
gambling in 1995, within New Mexico, was $231 million with a casino net
profit from operations amounting to $46 million. Of the $231 million spent
on gambling at Indian casinos, the estimate was that $59 million was spent
by tourists and visitors to the state (approximately 26 percent). (p.7)
The report reflects the visitors to New Mexico who spent the $59 million
on Indian casinos also accounted for an additional $216 million in
expenditures for hotels, motels, eating and drinking establishments in
1995. (p. 6-8)
According to the study, Indian casinos
account for loss of 1,480 jobs and a loss of $15.8 million dollars in
wage/salary income within certain sectors of the New Mexico economy;
however, an offsetting net gain of 11,360 jobs and $216 million in income
in other sectors also occurs. (p. 8)
- The report dismisses the possibility
that pathological gambling will become a problem in the state, in the
following language:
- While little is known about pathological
gambling in New Mexico and the possible commensurate fiscal impacts it
may be fostering, the prospect that pathological gambling either has
or will become a pronounced problem in the state is probably remote
(p. 17).
- The report states that over 60 percent
of New Mexico's residents visiting Indian casinos do so for
"entertainment," 3 percent visit casinos with the intention
of A... supporting [sic] their ordinary incomes, and only 19 percent
believe they will actually win money. (p. 17) The study does not
report on why the missing 18 percent (unless part of the "over 60
percent") visit Indian casinos. In focusing on crime, the report
states:
- A related concern often linked to Indian
gaming and gaming generally, is that gaming promotes a higher instance
of crime, or an environment that is conducive to criminal activity.
This perception is contradicted by the statistics on crime and other
facts and circumstances surrounding gaming throughout the United
States. (p. 18)
The foregoing quoted material leads into a
discussion of Indian gaming in New Mexico and throughout the country being
highly regulated and carefully managed by Tribes. The focus of the report
on the higher incidence of crime, or an environment that is conducive to
criminal activity, is with regard to the management of casinos and crime
within casinos -- not on potential criminal activity by the losers at the
gambling casinos.
The report does not include any assessment
of the economic and financial income impact of the Tribes' net gambling
revenue. The statement is made in the report that this report relies on
two relatively new and important sources of data on Indian gaming in New
Mexico: survey data from the University of New Mexico's Institute for
Public Policy, and gaming financial data from the various gaming tribes.
(p.3) However, the report does not address, except in very general terms,
and without any specificity, what the Indian Tribes are doing with the
money.
- B. Report On The Economic Impact
- Of The Mescalero Apache Tribe
- On The Village Of Ruidoso, July 1996
A report prepared for Wendell Chino,
President, Mescalero Apache Tribe, dated July 1996, finds that the
business activities of the Mescalero Apache Tribe (AMAT) have a positive
economic impact on the economy of Ruidoso. Visitors to Ski Apache and the
Inn of the Mountain Gods, which has a casino, restaurant and golf course,
are said to do all of their retail spending off reservation, since such
services are not available on Tribal land. MAT and its various enterprises
employed 2,635 people in 1995, second in number to Holloman Air Force
Base. (p. 1) The Inn of the Mountain Gods spent $1,769,059 with Ruidoso
based vendors of goods and services. (p. 2) Contributions to the Ruidoso
economy by both Tribal and non-Tribal employees was estimated at in excess
of $10.7 million annually. (p. 1) Thus, the economic effect of MAT's
activities is very positive for Ruidoso and surrounding areas.
The report does not disclose who prepared
the report or disclose MAT total revenues, casino revenues, net profits
from business activities of MAT or the cost of possible adverse social
effects in the Ruidoso area.
C. The October 1996 Study Prepared for the Indian Tribes
- In a study entitled "Indian Gaming
and the New Mexico Economy" prepared for the New Mexico Indian
Gaming Association by the Center for Applied Research, Denver,
Colorado, dated October 30, 1996, the Executive Summary reads as
follows:
- This report, "Indian Gaming and the
New Mexico Economy", indicates that Indian gaming has become an
integral part of New Mexico's tourism and entertainment industries.
Based on actual data through September 30, 1996, and estimates for the
fourth quarter of 1996, Indian gaming is indicated to be the source,
directly and indirectly, of over 15,000 jobs, $250 million in personal
income and $24.8 million in state tax revenue. Tourists, specifically
drawn to New Mexico by Indian gaming, will spend approximately $66.9
million this year at the State's eleven Indian gaming facilities,
while New Mexico residents will spend approximately $195.4 million.
The "net win" of the eleven gaming tribes in 1996 is thus
estimated to be $262.3 million.
- The tribes' disposition of this $262.3
million (the "net win" of their gaming operations) fuels
economic activity and tax revenue collections throughout the State
economy.
In 1996, the gaming tribes will spend:
- $56.4 million on wages and salaries for
4,275 employees at the various Indian gaming enterprises;
- $79.1 million on goods and services
purchased in-state to operate the gaming enterprises; and
- $126.8 million on capital investment
projects on reservations and tribal savings and investments made
through New Mexico financial institutions.
The State wide expenditures of the eleven
gaming tribes for goods and services are lower in 1996 than they were in
1995, due to: [1] the exceptionally high level of capital investment made
by tribes in 1995 to either expand existing gaming operations or to
inaugurate new gaming operations; and [2] the uncertainty of the outcome
of certain legal challenges to Indian gaming that have been mounted by two
special interest groups opposed to Indian gaming enterprises. The
litigation directed at Indian gaming has suspended the tribes' capital
improvement and construction activities, and it has also resulted in the
suspension of some $13 million in annual revenue sharing payments that
were to have been conveyed to the State by gaming tribes in 1996.
The disposition of revenue by the gaming
tribes generates other, secondary economic activity, resulting in
additional jobs and personal income being created throughout the State.
The 15,000 total jobs attributable to Indian gaming in 1996 is comprised
of 4,275 employed directly by the gaming enterprises and 10,738 jobs that
are generated as a result of the State-wide expenditures made by gaming
employees, tourists and the tribes themselves (i.e., the "multiplier
effect").
Tourists, drawn to New Mexico specifically
by Indian gaming, will spend in addition to their wagers, $250 million in
the State: $117.5 million on lodging; $30 million on transportation; $12.5
million at eating and drinking establishments; and $70 million in the
trade sector. These expenditures combine with the personal consumption
expenditures of the 4,275 employees of Indian gaming facilities and are a
source of business income and tax revenue throughout New Mexico.
In spite of the fact that Indian gaming is
a non-taxable activity, the State of New Mexico will realize a net
increase in gross receipts and State income tax collections in 1996 due to
Indian gaming. The economic activity stimulated directly and indirectly by
the tribes' in-State expenditures for labor, goods and services, by
tourist expenditures and by the Tribes' savings and investments more than
off-sets the gross receipts tax exemption at the gaming enterprise level.
Net 1996 gross receipts and income tax collections (i.e., net of the loss
in State tax collections due to resident expenditures on non-taxable
reservation-based gaming), will total $24.8 million in 1996.
The 1996 report does not take into account
the job loss and corresponding loss of wage/salary income to other sectors
of the New Mexico economy, which the 1995 study does reflect. It should be
noted that the 1996 study reports the dollars spent by tourists at Indian
casinos are $66.9 million (p. 4) and uses the same figure ($66.9 million)
for "Tourists, specifically drawn to New Mexico by gaming . . .@
(Executive Summary, p. I). The $66.9 million is then used as one part of
the equation to arrive at the multiplier effect. For the results to be
valid one must assume that the tourists spending the $66.9 million at
Indian casinos would not have come "but for" the Indian casinos.
The study does not calculate the negative economic effect that results
from New Mexico residents and out-of-state tourists spending their money
at Indian casinos rather than at alternate places of entertainment or the
social costs to New Mexico imposed by problem gamblers. The study does
strongly support the position of the Indian Tribes that the Tribal economy
are substantially improved, the net profits (net win less expenses) is
$126.8 million. (p. 4) IV. THE NATIONAL GAMBLING IMPACT STUDY
COMMISSION ACT OF 1996
As a result of the proliferation of
gambling throughout America, primarily at river boats and Indian casinos,
Congress passed the National Gambling Impact Policy Commission Act which
established the National Gambling Impact Study Commission. Congress has
directed the Commission to study the economic impact of gambling in the
United States. The matters to be studied are set forth in the Act and
include a study of the relationship of gambling and crime levels as well
as an assessment of social problems and associated costs. A report is due
in two years. V. NEW MEXICO
New Mexico's population in 1990, aged 18
and over, was 1,068,328. Based on the data of the 1995 Iowa Study by
Volberg, it might be estimated that New Mexico should expect between
approximately 11,000 and 21,000 current problem gamblers and between 3,500
and 10,500 current pathological gamblers. At an increased cost of between
$112 and $338 per adult New Mexican (not per gambler) (the Grinols and
Omorov Study), New Mexico can be estimated to incur between $120 million
and $360 million annually in social costs. At the cost estimated by the
Wisconsin study (with an incidence rate of between 0.7 percent and 4
percent of the adult population projected to have problems) the number of
problem gamblers in New Mexico can be estimated at between 7,478 and
42,733. As Wisconsin estimates the annual cost is between $13,500 and
$52,000 per problem gambler, the low social cost to New Mexico is $100
million (0.7% x 1,068,328 x $13,500) and the high social cost will be $388
million (0.7% x 1,068,328 x $52,000) per year if the lowest incidence rate
per current problem gambler is used. If, as is possible, a higher
incidence rate is determined to exist (more than 0.7% of the adult
population) the projected cost would be much higher.
In an effort to determine whether gambling
in New Mexico is having an adverse financial effect on New Mexicans,
bankruptcy statistics from the United States Bankruptcy Court, District of
New Mexico were obtained.
It is obvious that the trend to fewer
bankruptcies from 1992 to 1994 was sharply reversed in 1995. Nine months
of 1996 almost equals all bankruptcies during 1995. A chart prepared by
the Bankruptcy Court Clerk's office showing the total quarterly bankruptcy
filings from 1989 to September end 1996 is attached as Exhibit
"A." The Bankruptcy Court does not determine why bankruptcies in
New Mexico decreased each year from 1992 to 1994 and then began an upswing
in 1995.
Although the evidence of an increase is
clear-cut; however, subcommittee cannot assert the increase should be
attributed to bankruptcies caused by increased gambling. It is apparent
that the increase in bankruptcies over the recent period corresponds to
the increased availability of casino gambling and the New Mexico Lottery;
however, the increase may be attributable to increased credit card
availability. The Albuquerque Journal, October 20, 1996, reported that
Americans are burdened by credit card debt resulting from imprudent
spending and nationally the number of bankruptcies were increasing.
The Albuquerque Tribune, August 14, 1996,
reported that four new pawn shops had applied to the City for business
licenses, stating A. . . in a memo to the Mayor's office, City Treasurer
Lou Hoffman attributes it to the growth of casino gambling. In Billings,
Montana, the number of pawn shops rose from zero to 49 after gambling
arrived there, Hoffman said.
- The New Mexico Taxation and Revenue
Department in a report dated September 19, 1996 estimated that fiscal
1996 gross receipts tax were nearly $23.2 million lower than
projections. The question is - why? Several possible reasons are
listed with TRD reporting that TRD's model cannot isolate a specific
factor. TRD's Summary and Conclusion is as follows:
- TRD analysis supports the conclusion
that there were significant changes in certain sectors of the economy
beginning in the fourth quarter of 1994, concurrent with the expansion
of Indian casino gambling in New Mexico. While the expansion of Indian
casino gambling can not be directly linked to the documented change in
the structure of the state's economy, the persistence of those changes
in those sectors most likely to be affected, indicates a strong
correlation between the two. In the most recent fiscal year, weather
conditions did have a negative impact on the revenues from tourism,
but neither statistical or anecdotal evidence supports a permanent
contraction of tourist activity. Therefore, TRD analysis can only
conclude that some portion of the decrease in general fund revenues
from gross receipts taxes is attributable to the introduction of
Indian casino gaming in New Mexico. Without operating and net win
information from the casinos themselves, it is impossible to quantify
exactly the gross receipts tax impact of Indian gaming on the state
general fund and local governments. (TRD Report, pp. 5, 6)
VI. CONCLUSION
The weight of the studies I have reviewed
leads me to conclude:
- that gambling has a positive economic
effect on casino owners and operators (the "winners"), a
severe negative effect on the problem and pathological gamblers and
their families (the "losers") and an overall negative
economic effect on the community as a whole unless the larger
"outside" money is sufficient to offset the overall negative
economic effects.
- Casinos, unless part of destination
resort casinos, cannibalize tax revenues and consumer spending from
other local businesses, however, if the casinos are taxed (or, in the
case of Indian Casinos, a revenue sharing agreement is in place), the
revenue effect on the state may be neutral.
- In spite of a revenue neutral effect on
state tax revenues, gambling creates costs for all within the state
(or region) who do not gamble. Such costs are borne by all, including
the social-non problem and non-pathological gambler.
- The social costs of gambling may not
appear suddenly, rather the social costs may take time, perhaps months
or two or three years, to surface.
- The availability of legalized gambling
leads to an increase in gambling and the number of problem and
pathological gamblers in the population.
- The closer a casino or other gambling
outlet is, geographically, to a potential patron, the more likely it
is that the individual will be a gambler and the greater the
opportunity for an individual to become a problem gambler, or
pathological gambler.
- The social costs of gambling to the
population outweigh the benefits to the owners of casinos, their
employees and vendors.
William B. Keleher
November 26, 1996
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